Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani Armed Forces lost 12 servicemen last month

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[ 05 Jun 2009 15:48 ]

Baku. Rashad Suleymanov – APA. Azerbaijani Armed Forces lost 12 servicemen in May because of various reasons. 9 servicemen were wounded or injured.

It was said at the press conference on the outcomes of May held by the Coalition for Public Control over Defense and Security sector, APA reports.

Member of the coalition, head of Military Analytical Studies Center Ildirim Mammadov said 2 servicemen were killed by Armenians, 6 died because of the reasons not included into the regulations, 2 died in the road accident, the death causes of 2 soldiers are not known yet. 164 were poisoned, 1 was captured last month.

“May was unsuccessful for the army. Poisoning was the culmination of the events. On May 23 a soldier killed his fellow soldiers in Seyfeli training ground, a soldier killed the commander, his fellow soldier and himself in Nakhchivan. All this requires increasing control over the situation in the Armed Forces,” he said.

Chairman of the coalition Yashar Jafarli said 35-40 servicemen of Azerbaijani Armed Forces died and about 20 injured in January-May in 2009. The losses increased by 62 percent compared with re reporting period of 2008. According to the coalition’s reports, 10 of them are battle losses (8 were killed by Armenians, 2 in mine blast), the rest are non-battle losses. 12 soldiers died because of the actions not included into the regulations, 2 died of disease, 2 servicemen committed suicide. Moreover, 2 servicemen died in the road accident and death causes of 2 soldiers are not known yet.

1 of them was the serviceman of State Border Service, the rest servicemen of the Defense Ministry.

The experts of the coalition consider that suicides and accidents in the Armed Forces are increasing. According to the experts’ calculations, 361 servicemen of Azerbaijani Armed Forces died within 77 months – in 2003-2009. 144 of them are battle losses (120 were killed by Armenians, 21 in mine and UXO blasts, 3 during operations), 217 are non-battle losses (46 committed suicide, 29 died in catastrophes, 72 as a result of non-regulatory actions, 51 in accidents, the causes of death of 19 servicemen are not known). 278 servicemen have been wounded and injured since 2003.

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Despite Armenia's will, CSTO participating countries to prevent CRRF interference in regional conflicts: experts

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10.06.09 11:10 Despite Armenia's will, CSTO participating countries to prevent CRRF interference in regional conflicts: experts

Azerbaijan, Baku, June 9 /Trend News, E.Tariverdiyeva/

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) participating countries will prevent the interference by the Collective rapid reaction forces (CRRF) in domestic regional conflicts, despite of Armenians will.

"The probability of interference of CRRF in the Nagorno-Karabakh is zero," Azerbaijani political scientist Tofig Abbasov said.

At a meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha informed the president that a package of documents to the next summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which will be held on June 14, has already been prepared. The document includes an agreement on CRRF, annexes concerning the issues of command, rules of conduct, documents that define the composition of military units belonging to CRRF and a roster of forces, RIA Novosti reported.

The decision to form the CRRF was made at the February summit of the CSTO in Moscow.

Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are members of the CSTO.

According to Bordyuzha, CRRF is not occupied with regional conflicts of CSTO participating countries.

Armenia is not satisfied with the decision, considering that the CRRF group must defense CSTO countries of local conflicts.

"Yerevan is interested in a logic question what will be CSTO's reaction in case of military aggression to Armenia by its eastern neighbor. The answer that we have heard (the reaction will be reserved or neutral) does not satisfy us," senior official of Armenian Foreign Ministry told the Vrema Novostei newspaper, who asked to remain anonymous.

The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts.

Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France, and the U.S. - are currently holding the peace negotiations.

Despite Armenia's will, CSTO participating countries will refuse the interference of CRRF in local conflicts.

Armenia seeks a clarification of the rapid reaction force's potential use in the South Caucasus region, and wants a military security guarantee from the CSTO that the force can be used to defend Armenia "in times of crisis," reflecting Armenia's threat perception form both Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenian political scientist Richard Giragosian said.

The CSTO will most likely neither provide Armenia with the specific military guarantee that it seeks nor will it become any sort of pressure against Azerbaijan.

Moscow seems to have a pronounced tendency to improve relations with Baku, Giragosian said.

"Moscow may even see a need to entice Azerbaijan to seek some sort of cooperation with the CSTO over the long term, and will not adopt any decision that could turn the CSTO into any kind of balance of counter against Azerbaijani interests in the region," Director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies Richard Giragosian wrote to Trend News in an email.

Relations of Azerbaijan and Russia will not damage regardless of decision to be made at the upcoming meeting of the CSTO, Azerbaijani Political Scientist Abbasov believes.

"Russia is interested that its peacekeeping potential will play a decisive role in the Karabakh crisis settlement," Expert of the Lider TV Analytical Group Abbasov told Trend News. "Russia's building partnership relations with Azerbaijan relies on basic interests."

He said just these interests have a direct impact on a safety reserve regarding presence in the South Caucasus, as well as the fate of the global and long-term economic plans.

Observers believe not only Russia, but also the countries of Central Asia will not allow the use of collective rapid reaction forces, desired by Armenia.

The CSTO participants, particularly the countries of Central Asia do not want to assume military responsibilities and to intervene in the conflicts of two other states, said Kazakh political analyst Dosim Satpayev.

"The remained participants of the CSTO will unlikely support the use of the collective rapid reaction forces in the inter-state conflicts," Director of the Risk Assessment Group Satpayev said to Trend News by telephone from Astana. "It does not meet the interest of other participants in the organization, particularly, the countries of Central Asia."

During a recent meeting of Defense Ministers of Collective Security Treaty Organization in Moscow, Uzbekistan also opposed the concept of the collective rapid reaction forces, precisely because, Uzbekistan believes these forces have even too many opportunities and powers that be a regional provider on safety, he said.

"If Armenia insists on strengthening of these forces, then Uzbekistan, by contrast, supports those forces to be under control and less involved in issues related to the security of sovereign states, on which Russia," Satpayev said.

Armenia may just stay with its opinion on the matter, said the expert. "I do not think it will be able to provide some pressure on the process, because Armenia has no leverage on the countries of Central Asia," Satpayev said.

As to aggression actions that may cause intervention for the collective rapid reaction to be formed, the situation around the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has its own characteristics. The act of aggression has already been committed more than 15 years ago, which has been clearly indicated in four UN resolutions, Abbasov said.

"If Azerbaijan decides to liberate its occupied territories due to failure of mediator-countries' peace efforts, this will become an action of compelling to peace as it was done by Russia during the crisis in South Ossetia," Abbasov said.

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7% population loss in Armenia by 2050

Population Reference Bureau (PRB) reports natural population loss to make 7% in Armenia by 2050. In Georgia and Ukraine the loss will make 28%, whereas in Azerbaijan – 34%, Swaziland and Bulgaria – 33% and 35% respectively.

Japan is rated 6th, Moldova – 7th with decrease in population by 25% and 23% correspondingly. In Belarus, Romania, Bosnia and Herzegovina the population loss is estimated at 20%, in Serbia – 21%.

Population size in Russia by 2050 will decrease to 110.1 million. According to PRB, population size in Russia by mid 2008 totaled 141.9 million.

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Armenian Troops Hold ‘Peacekeeping’ Drills

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Hundreds of Armenian troops began on Wednesday one-week military exercises which officials said are aimed at testing and improving their ability to participate in international peacekeeping operations.
Among the 900 or so participants are not only members of a special peacekeeping brigade of Armenia’s Armed Forces but also army commandos backed by helicopter gunships. They are simulating military intervention in clashes between hostile civilian populations in an imaginary conflict zone.

The scenario of the exercises, conducted at the Marshal Bagramian military training ground 40 kilometers west of Yerevan, also involves the setting up of a security “buffer zone” and checkpoints. Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian was present at the opening of the drills, the first of their kind ever held in Armenia, along with top army generals and foreign monitors, including from NATO member states.

“Such war games are aimed at developing our peacekeepers’ practical skills,” Colonel Artur Stepanian, commander of the brigade, was quoted by Armenian Public Radio as saying. “Their capabilities, knowledge and potential are being tested in practice.”

Stepanian said that is necessary for Armenia’s continued participation in Western-led peacekeeping missions in Kosovo and other “hot spots.” Yerevan doubled the number of Armenian soldiers serving in Kosovo to 70 before withdrawing its similarly small military contingent from Iraq last year.

It is also expected to send troops to Afghanistan in the months ahead. The Associated Press news agency quoted unnamed officials in Yerevan as saying last month that they will comprise munitions experts and communication officers and serve there under German command.

The Armenian peacekeeping unit was set up in 2001 with financial and technical assistance provided by the United States and other NATO member states. The U.S. military alone has supplied it with at least $6 million worth of equipment.

The volunteer unit currently consists of two battalions, one of them formed in 2008. It is due to become a full-fledged army brigade by 2015 in accordance with Armenia’s Individual Partnership Action Plan with NATO.

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Zhirair Sefilyan: No Artsakh problem for Armenians

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The current state of the settlement of the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict, as well as the latest developments, constitutes an immediate threat to the physical existence of the Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) Armenians, to Armenia and to the territorial integrity of Artsakh, our liberated Homeland, stated Zhirair Sefilyan, an action group member, Unification national initiative. He hailed the newly formed Republic of Artsakh initiative and said that the problem of Artsakh does not exist for Armenians.

“We have a problem of settling Artsakh and resettling liberated territories. In negotiating with the outer world, as well as with as with our opponents, we had two powerful arguments:

Armenian soldiers are defending Artsakh and the liberated territories, which they are trying to &‘undo’ during the negotiations;

100,000 Armenian refugees from Azerbaijan were to be settled in Artsakh, which, unfortunately, was not done by either the former or the incumbent authorities except for the partial settlement of Kashataghi,” Sefilyan said.

“At present, dangers to Artsakh are obvious, and the Armenian authorities are contributing to a settlement of the conflict not in Armenians’ favor. So the Artsakh Armenians cannot remain silent and put up with the reality. The matter concerns the Homeland. Whoever is the Artsakh leader, that one must obey the Artsakh Armenians’ will,” Sefilyan said.

According to him, even the slightest territorial concessions will disturb the delicate balance of forces, which is a guarantee of cease-fire and a deterrent to the Azerbaijan’s aggressive encroachments. Such concessions would also cause a collapse of the entire politico-military security system thereby making the resumption of hostilities by Azerbaijan inevitable. “Any Armenian authorities must reject the unrealizable plans to retain power and illegal economic benefits at the cost of the integrity of Armenia’s liberated territories and defense system,” said Sefilyan, the former commander of the Shushi special battalion.

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Drive for signatures in Karabakh

At its statutory meeting last Saturday, the ‘Artsakh Republic’ initiative group announced a drive for signatures aimed to rename the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic into the Republic of Artsakh, to declare the liberated territories a zone of vital national interests and create a foundation for territories’ settlement.

The statement signed by six group members reads:

“We, the undersigned, considering the declared statements a platform for further accomplishments, made a decision to reach the following as an ultimate aim:

1. To rename Nagorno-Karabakh Republic into the Republic of Artsakh

2. To declare the liberated territories a zone of vital national interests

3. To create all-national trust foundation for settling the liberated territories by Armenian refugees, ensure there economic growth to nullify the misbalance with Azerbaijani forces.”

The signers launched a drive for signatures in Karabakh to realize the aforementioned points.

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