Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:44 pm

The following is an interesting and informative article that appeared a few months ago in the "Moscow Defense Brief" journal. Written by its chief-editor Mikhail Barabanov. I believe the subject deserves a thread of its own.

Moscow Defense Brief serves as a comprehensive and reliable source of public information and unbiased analysis on all aspects of Russia's policy and activities in the security and defense spheres. The magazine is an important resource for foreign governments, policy makers, industrialists, political and economic experts, and researchers interested in Russian and/or CIS affairs.

It is not only independent and professional but also quite critical military publication. They have been busting the overly enthusiastic patriotic drum-rollers in the Russia’s ministry of defense for years, criticizing state integration policy in the military industrial complex and exposing incompetent military acquisitions programs, rampant corruption, and military budget black holes. They typically reveal so much hidden data and provide such an indepth analysis that I suspect this is #1 Russian publication on the US military intelligence list.

The website is : [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

I am certain you will find many interesting articles in it.

ZORAVAR

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Nagorno-Karabakh: Shift in the Military Balance

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Karabagh Army tanks during a military parade

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Azeri army: The 3 variants of Israeli made IMI LYNX multiple rocket systems mounted on Russian made KAMAZ trucks

While the international media focuses on the confrontations in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Georgia’s rapid rearmament, the forgotten dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh continues to smolder. Indeed, it seems only a matter of time before the conflict between Azerbaijan on the one hand, and Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh on the other, bursts into flames again.

Back in 1988, the demands of the autonomous oblast of Nagorno-Karabakh, inhabited mainly by Armenians, to secede from Azerbaijan and join Armenia, was the first of the interethnic conflicts that would shake the USSR and lead to a crisis of Gorbachev’s policy of perestroika. After the final extinction of the USSR toward the end of 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought tooth and nail for the disputed region, deploying all manner of armaments of the Transcaucasus Military District of the Soviet Armed Forces that were either «privatized» or gifted from Moscow.

Thanks to the higher level of combat readiness of their armed formations, the Armenians maintained the high ground in this battle. Towards the spring of 1994, the Armenians not only kept control over almost all of Nagorno-Karabakh, but also managed to capture a wide «buffer zone.» Most importantly, the Armenians took almost all of the territory that separated Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia itself, in effect «engulfing» the territory in question. In May 1994 the war concluded through the mediation of CIS leaders with the signing of the Bishkek truce, which enshrined the status quo. This signified the complete victory of the Armenians and the undisputable defeat of Azerbaijan.

The Armenian armed forces continue to control over 8% of the territory of the former Azeri Soviet Socialist Republic. The so-called Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is not recognized by any other country, but it rules over this territory with a rather powerful army. In theory, the NKR exists independently of Armenia. However, this independence is clearly a fiction, the republic is de facto a part of Armenia, and the armed forces of the NKR are merely the extension of the Armenian armed forces.

It is perhaps indicative that Robert Kocharian, President of Armenia from 1998–2008, was earlier the President of the NKR. Like other unrecognized republics in the post-Soviet area, the NKR has become a kind of «black hole» in terms of international law, and with respect to the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) in particular. Armenia lost eight thousand lives in the conflict. Azerbaijan lost 25 thousand, and took in 417 thousand refugees from territories occupied by Armenian forces.

Since then, a kind of brittle truce has endured in the South Caucasus for 14 years, punctuated occasionally by military incidents. In spite of the truce, the standoff between Armenia/NKR and Azerbaijan is comparable to the front lines during the First World War. For Azerbaijan, the issue of «restoring its territorial integrity» is a key issue of domestic and foreign policy. Azeri politicians have been promising to «defeat the Armenians» and to «take back Karabakh» for years, but in the past few years they have actually accumulated the resources necessary to accomplish this task, thanks to the large revenues accruing from sales of Caspian oil.

Indeed, the Azeri economy has grown rapidly since 2000, outpacing all other post-Soviet republics, reaching a record of 29.3% growth in 2007 and 15% in the first quarter of 2008. Government expenditures have increased by a factor of ten over 2002-2008. The sharp growth of oil revenues to the budget has allowed Azerbaijan to increase its defense expenditures by a factor of nine since 2004: from 144 million USD in 2003 to 1.2 billion USD in 2008, which accounts for about 4% of Azerbaijan’s GDP. Moreover, according to a recent announcement of President Aliyev, total defense expenditures for 2008 will reach $2 billion. This figure is comparable to the entire state budget of Armenia, which is projected at 2.5 billion USD for 2008. While Aliyev may be exaggerating Azerbaijan’s defense expenditures, the general tendency is clear enough.

High levels of defense spending have supported a broad program for the modernization and reequipping of the Azeri armed forces, which is beginning to affect the balance of forces between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The armed forces of Azerbaijan originated as informal groups of anti-Armenian fighters in 1989–1991, but they assumed the character of regular forces of the National Army of Azerbaijan after December 1991, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. From 1991–1993 Azerbaijan acquired most of the armaments of the 4th Army of the Soviet Transcaucasus Military District, including three motorized rifle divisions (23rd, 60th, and 295th) and the 75th motorized rifle division in Nakhichevan, and half of the armaments of the 104th airborne division in Ganja.

Moreover, Baku received part of the Caspian navy with its entire coastal infrastructure, including some aviation and air defense assets. By mid-1993 Azerbaijan possessed 458 tanks, 1264 armored vehicles, 395 artillery and mortar launchers, 63 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), up to 100 air defense systems, 53 military and 52 training aircraft, 18 combat and 15 transport helicopters, and up to 30 ships and cutters. Azerbaijan acquired over 100 thousand pieces of small arms and over 11 thousand carloads of ammunition.

A significant proportion of these armaments was lost during the Karabakh war. According to published sources, 186 tanks, 119 armored vehicles, and 59 artillery systems were completely destroyed, and a significant amount of equipment was damaged and could not be returned to service, including 43 tanks, 114 armored vehicles, and 51 main guns. The Azeris lost much of their armor on territory captured by the Armenians, who proceeded to repair the equipment and put it back into service. The Armenians also took down 20 Azeri aircraft and 21 helicopters.

For their part, the Azeris captured 23 T-72 tanks, 14 armored vehicles, and nine main guns. To make up for their losses, the Azeris had already begun during the war to purchase arms from Ukraine, including 150 T-55 tanks, eight MiG-21 fighters, and two Su-17 fighter-bombers.

After the signing of the truce in 1994, Azerbaijan still had enough armaments to equip its army. Indeed, some of its armor had to be scrapped to comply with the CFE Treaty. No significant procurement had been made for almost a whole decade, until oil revenues began to take hold. And when Azerbaijan began once again to procure armaments, it sought relatively modern, heavy weapons from the former USSR, notably Ukraine, which became the main source of weapons to Transcaucasus, including the powerful 300 mm 9K58 Smerch MLRS with a range of 70 km.

From 2007, Azerbaijan also began to acquire arms from Russia. In particular, Azerbaijan was the first to place an order for the new Russian BTR-90, signing a contract with the Arzamas Machine Building Plant for delivery in 2008 of a few BTR-90s and 70 BTR-80A. One of the conditions of the agreement reached in 2002 over the status of the Gabalina radar station was the provision of military assistance to modernize Azerbaijan’s air force and air defense systems, the training of Azeri military in Russia, and repair services for military equipment.

As for NATO, in spite of Azerbaijan’s fairly active assertions of its intentions to join the alliance, to meet NATO standards and the like, cooperation with Western countries has been limited to relatively modest military assistance and training. Turkey has provided the greatest amount of aid, reaching a total of 170 million USD in 2005. Azerbaijan has also purchased small arms and modern communications equipment from American and Israeli firms on a purely commercial basis.

Azerbaijan is now putting the emphasis on acquiring new aviation equipment for its air force. in 2005, it signed a contract with Ukraine for the delivery of 12 MiG-29 fighters, two MiG-29UB aircraft, and 12 L-39 training aircraft. It bought 12 Su-25 assault planes (probably Czech) and one Su-27UB from Georgia. Negotiations with Ukraine for the acquisition of Su-27 fighters and Su-25 assault planes have also been reported, along with modernization in Ukraine of Azeri Mi-24 combat helicopters by the South African ATE company’s Super Hind Mk-III program. Azerbaijan is reportedly looking to acquire 24 of the new Chinese FC-1 light fighters. It is also purchasing UAVs from Israel, all of which attests to the clear intention of the Azeri military leadership to achieve air superiority as a top priority.

In late 2005, Azerbaijan established a Ministry of Defense Industry, endowed with significant resources. In 2007, the ministry announced the launch of series production of 29 weapons systems along with parts and ammunition. The state defense procurement order for 2008 included the creation of 80 new types of military items and the production of 444. The national budget for 2008 allocated 66 million manat to the Ministry of Defense Industry. New production will be established primarily in cooperation with Western states.

By 2008, the Azeri armed forces have overtaken the Armenian once in terms of active personnel (73 thousand) and armament. However, this numerical superiority is compensated by the army of the unrecognized NKR, which has about the same amount of arms as the official land forces of either Armenia or Azerbaijan. Moreover, over the past 14 years the Armenians have worked constantly to improve and fortify their line of defense in Nagorno-Karabakh, reaching from the Mrav heights to the Araks river. Furthermore, Armenia is part of the Russian-led CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and about four thousand Russian troops are deployed in Armenia, mostly at the 102nd base in Gyumri.

Nevertheless, the rapid growth of Azeri defense expenditures, driving the strong rearmament of the Azeri armed forces, is putting into question the ability of the Armenians to maintain the military balance with Azerbaijan. This is particularly pertinent with respect to Azerbaijan’s buildup of its air force and projected acquisitions of modern and high-precision weaponry. Official figures probably understate the volume of Armenian defense spending, but several Azeri estimates put the actual defense spending of Armenia and the NKR for 2008 at about 800 million USD, which seems likely. But the overall trend is clearly in Azerbaijan’s favor, and it seems that Armenia will not be able to sustain an arms race with Azerbaijan’s oil-fueled economy. And this could lead to the destabilization of the frozen conflict between these two states.

Table 1. Main Economic Indicators for Armenia and Azerbaijan
Table 2. Defense Budgets of Armenia and Azerbaijan, mln USD
Table 3. Reported deliveries of military equipment to Azerbaijan 2000 – 2007
Table 4. Actual military balance between Azerbaijan and Armenia in early 2008

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by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:45 pm

An older synopsis, but still relevant.

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ARMENIA BUILDS UP ITS MILITARY MIGHT AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF THE DEEPENING CRISIS IN THE RELATIONS WITH AZERBAIJAN THAT THREATENS WITH FULL-SCALE WAR

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Agency WPS/DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
August 27, 2004, Friday

The Russian-Armenian military cooperation develops quite dynamically. Not long ago, Russia lent a sympathetic ear to Armenia's request concerning training of up to 150 officers. Complicated situation in the Caucasus forces the authorities of Armenia to pay unfeigned attention to national defense. According to official data alone, the 2004 Armenian state budget allocated almost $82 million for military needs, an almost 10% rise against war spending in 2003. Estimates of the International Institute of Strategic Studies (London) show that in 2002 Armenia was the CIS leader in the arms spending to GDP ratio - 6.4%, an equivalent of $162 million. The CIA claims that as far as this particular parameter is concerned, Armenia is the 11th in the world; it spent $135 million on its army in 2001. When the closed parliamentary hearing of fulfillment of the 2003 budget was over not long ago, Armenian Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisjan said that arms spending would be increased next year again. Sarkisjan refused to elaborate but said that the Armenian national army was initiating a program of rearmament.

It should be noted that the population of Armenia, not exactly a wealthy country, does not object to these measures taken by national leaders. The population is perfectly aware of the undeclared war with Azerbaijan that is under way. Serious clashes are regularly reported in the areas where Armenian and Azerbaijani troops face each other; shots have been fired by sharpshooters for a decade (ever since the cease-fire on the Karabakh front was signed). Moreover, official Yerevan positions itself as a guarantor of security of Karabakh. Turkey is another potential enemy. Diplomatic relations with Turkey have never been established. Ankara is still blocking the border with Armenia and pursuing an openly anti-Armenian policy. Sociologists of the Armenian Center of National and Strategic Studies discovered that 47.5% respondents in Armenia believe that the war with Azerbaijan may be resumed within five years, and 7% more expect a Turkish aggression within the same span of time.

Figures

Armenian national army is considered one of the most combat ready in the Caucasus. These days, it is over 60,000 men strong. According to the CIA, there are 810,000 men in Armenia aged 15 to 59 and almost 650,000 of them are fit for combat. Most experts say, however, that mobilization resources of Armenia amount to 300,000 men, i.e. almost 10% of the total population (over 3.2 million). Under the Treaty on Conventional Arms in Europe, in 2001 Armenia declared 102 T-72 tanks and 204 armored vehicles (most of them infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers). With the military hardware the Treaty on Conventional Arms in Europe does not apply to, Armenia has up to 700 armored vehicles. Its artillery comprises 225 pieces of 122 mm and larger calibers including 50 multiple rocket launchers. The Armenian Air Force includes five SU-25 ground-attack aircraft, one MIG-25, 35 helicopters (the latter include twelve MI-24 attack helicopters), and 3,000 servicemen. Yerevan intends to build up this component of its Armed Forces. Not long ago, Defense Ministry of Slovenia proclaimed the sale of ten SU-25s to Armenia (nine SU-25K one-seaters and one SU-25UBK two-seater). The consignment will cost Armenia $1 million. Armenia bought two IL-76 military transports from Russia not long ago. The transports were bought at Russian domestic prices and made it to Armenia together with Defense Minister of Russia Sergei Ivanov.

Armenia builds up its Air Force in the hope of making it a match for the Azerbaijani, but its antiaircraft defense is considered the best throughout the Caucasus. Armenian antiaircraft defense comprises an antiaircraft missile brigade and two regiments armed with almost 100 antiaircraft complexes of various models and modifications (Osa, Krug, S-75, and S-125). Numerical strength is estimated at about 2,000 servicemen. Armenian antiaircraft defense developed in a hurry in the war over Karabakh when Azerbaijani Air Force regularly and energetically bombarded Armenian trenches and settlements both in Karabakh and in Armenia's own border districts. There was nothing Armenia could do about it then. By 1993, however, it already had a formidable antiaircraft defense in Armenia itself and in the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. Its deployment cut Azerbaijani advantage in the sky to the minimum. These days, the Armenian skies are controlled by Armenian and Russian antiaircraft defense units on joint combat duty since 1999. There are at least 30 MIG-29 fighters and a regiment of S-300s quartered on the territory of Armenia.

Allies in the Organization of the CIS Collective Security Treaty

Armenia is a member of the Organization of the CIS Collective Security Treaty. As such, it participates in all events organized within its framework. In any case, Russia is Armenia's oldest and traditional ally. Ever since the regaining of sovereignty, the tandem of Moscow and Yerevan has served as one of the few examples of bona fide military-political cooperation in the Commonwealth. There is practically no discord between Russia and Armenia in this sphere. Russia and Armenia together defend the Armenian airspace or, rather, the southern border of the Commonwealth. Armenian borders with Turkey and Iran are manned by almost 2,000 Russian bodyguards who serve shoulder to shoulder with their Armenian counterparts. Yet, it is the 102nd Military Base in Gyumri that is Russia's major outpost in Armenia. Unlike Tbilisi or Baku, official Yerevan never brings up the subject of withdrawal of the Russian troops. When Sarkisjan is asked the question, he never answers believing it a rhetoric question. Armenian society regards the Russian troops as a covering force defending it from the Turkish aggression.

Until recently, the 102nd Military Base had 74 tanks, 17 battle infantry vehicles, 148 armored personnel carriers, 84 artillery pieces, up to 30 MIG-23s and MIG-29s, and a regiment of S-300 antiaircraft complexes. In the last eighteen months, however, a great deal of military hardware was moved there from Georgia. Armenia gave the land and objects used by the 102nd Military Base over to Russia and covers some communal services. Officer training is another sphere of Russian-Armenian military cooperation. In the first years of sovereignty when Armenia did not have military educational establishments of its own, officers of its army were trained in Russia. Even now when Armenia has a military college on its own territory, the Armenian officer corps honors the tradition and is trained at Russian military educational establishments. On a visit to Armenia in late May, Ivanov said that 600 Armenian servicemen are being trained in Russia. "Armenia asks for the permission to send 150 servicemen to Russia in 2005, and Russia gave its consent," Ivanov said.

It seems that Moscow and Yerevan do not plan to stop. The first meeting of the joint Russian-Armenian government panel for military-technical cooperation will take place this autumn. According to Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, Russian factories will participate in the Armenian program of military hardware modernization. He even said that Russia is prepared to supply the necessary spare parts an equipment. Belarus is another ally of Armenia in the Organization of the CIS Collective Security Treaty. The two countries signed a treaty in 2002. Under the document, Armenia will receive light weapons, armored vehicles, ordnance, and optical devices in return for spare parts and gadgets for military hardware. Armenia also intends to have its heavy military hardware upgraded at Belarusian factories. Lieutenant General Sergei Gurulev, Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces, says that the Armenian-Belarusian military contacts "become systematic and deliberate."

Do not forget NATO

Greece is Armenia's best ally in the Alliance. Greece and Armenia share ancient ties and a common enemy - Turkey. Armenian officers are trained in Greece. Every now and then Athens puts into motion military aid programs. In 2003, the two countries signed another military cooperation accord under which Greece will up the number of Armenian servicemen trained at the military and military-medical academies in Athens. Armenia became a peacekeeper in February. It sent 34 servicemen to Kosovo where they became an element of the Greek contingent. Armenian servicemen in Kosovo are paid by the Greeks. Yerevan has been shifting towards NATO lately, mostly within the framework of the NATO's Partnership for Peace Program. Cooperative Best Effort exercise (the first one where Russia was

represented) was run on the territory of Armenia in 2003. Armenian cooperation with NATO is mostly declarative for the time being, but the United States - the country steadily upping its clout with countries of the region - has far-reaching plans with regard to Yerevan. In early 2003, the Pentagon announced several major military programs in the Caucasus. Washington's military aid to Armenia in 2004 will amount to $5 million even though the US Administration intended to restrict it to $2 million at first. Armenia and the United States signed a military-technical cooperation accord in April. Some articles in the American media imply that the accord specifies the use of Armenian airfields by the USAF.

Proclaiming complementariness as its foreign political doctrine, official Yerevan never misses a chance to advance its contacts with Washington. When the war in Iraq was under way, Armenia remained neutral. It neither supported the war and America's action nor condemned them. These days, however, the parliament and government of Armenia are working on the legislation that will enable Yerevan to send servicemen to Iraq. The Cabinet already endorsed the decision of the Defense Ministry to subscribe to the memorandum "On the command and settlement of issues in connection with activities of the international division in the forces of coalition in Iraq". At first, Armenia will probably send 10 de-miners and 3 doctors and some trucks

to Iraq. Moreover, Armenia even permitted the United States to modernize its communications, one of the most vulnerable items. Yerevan expects to get communications means from American companies. The deliveries will be paid for by the White House (the sum amounts to $7 million). Commenting on it, Sarkisjan said that Russia is quite understanding. "We are allies. It means that the strengthening of one partner will benefit the other," said Sarkisjan. "We initiated the process a year ago, and I found our Russian colleagues quite understanding." He said that from military cooperation with the United States Armenia expected to up combat potential of its own army.

So, Armenia ups its military might against the background of the deepening crisis in the relations with Azerbaijan, the crisis that threatens to deteriorate into another full-scale war. It should be noted as well that in any conflict the Armenian national army may count on servicemen from Karabakh. In fact, the Karabakh army even leaves the Armenian behind in some parameters. Karabakh armed formations cannot match the Armenian army in manpower (about 20,000 servicemen and mobilization resources at 60,000 men), but they are certainly ahead of Armenia in heavy military hardware: 316 tanks, 324 armored vehicles, 322 artillery pieces of calibers over 122 mm, 44 multiple rocket launchers, and the antiaircraft defense system that

performed flawlessly in the hostilities in the 1990's.

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by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:46 pm

And this assessment by our very own CIA representative, Richard Giragosian.

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Armenia Keeps its Powder Dry

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New munitions plant is seen as a step towards a more self-sufficient defence industry. By Gegham Vardanian in Yerevan (CRS No. 418 07-Nov-07) Armenia has started making ammunition for its armed forces, in an attempt to keep pace with other defence industries in the South Caucasus. A munitions factory re-opened in September after a refit costing 4.7 million US dollars. The plant is owned by the Armenian firm DG Arms Cooperation, the country’s only defence manufacturer. Almost all of the country’s weaponry comes from Russia. The plant’s current capacity is 100 million bullets a year, most of which is intended for the Armenian armed forces. Partev Mushegian, director general of DG Arms, said the company intended to invest an additional 22 million dollars and increase annual output by 70 million bullets. Next year, it plans to produce flak jackets as well.

“The factory plans to move onto the international market after it has started meeting the country’s needs,” Mushegian told IWPR. He said the factory aimed to make bullets that complied with NATO standards, so that they could be sold abroad. “Our products will be exported - with the permission of the Armenian authorities - to countries that are not subject to United Nations or European Union sanctions, and that are not counter to the interests of Collective Security Treaty Organisation members,” said Mushegian, referring to the CSTO, a defence grouping of former Soviet states. The factory was reopened following the privatisation of two companies, Neutron and Bagavan. Neutron’s factory first started making bullets in 1986 and carried on through the Nagorny Karabakh conflict. But it was unable to keep up with demand, and Armenia had to start importing ammunition. Over the past decade, production all but stopped. The re-modelled Yerevan-based plant employs 120 workers, and there are plans to open a smaller branch factory in the town of Abovian. The government has not subsidised the new plant, but says it is keen to foster a defence industry.

“We need to upgrade our factories,” Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian said at a ceremony to mark the opening of the munitions plant. “This is directly linked to our country’s defence capability. I think that if the factory works at full capacity, our needs for a number of types of ammunition will be completely covered.” Artur Agabekian, a former deputy defence minister who now heads the Armenian parliament’s defence, national security and interior affairs committee, told IWPR, “It is satisfying to know that a factory run on private capital is producing ammunition. If the state handles its orders properly, then I am certain that investors will emerge who will be ready to put their money into munitions manufacturing and repairs. We should be able to assist this process.” Experts say the launch of the factory is a small step towards making Armenia’s military more self-sufficient. The government’s defence budget is set to grow by 20 per cent in 2008 to reach 380 million US dollars - around ten per cent of total planned expenditure. As a CSTO member, Armenia benefits from a 30 per cent discount on arms purchases from Russia, its main supplier. Prime minister Sarkisian said the launch of the factory had nothing to do with the unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan over Karabakh.

Most analysts do not concur with this. Azerbaijan, which recently created a government ministry in charge of the defence industry, has one of the fastest-growing defence budgets in the world. Military spending in 2007 is put at more than one billion dollars, and President Ilham Aliev has said he wants defence expenditure to be greater than the Armenia’s entire government budget. “To me, the plant is important in terms of demonstrating to Azerbaijan that we have been able to preserve the balance [with Azerbaijan] and are taking action in response,” said Washington-based security expert Richard Giragosian. “In future, Armenia should set up a state structure like Azerbaijan’s and invest in development of its military industry. This will put us in a position to show Azerbaijan that we are not lagging behind. “The creation of a bullet-producing factory is definitely a positive first step, but it’s not enough. It’s more important to develop production of airplanes, tanks and artillery.” David Petrosian, a security expert and commentator with the Noyan Tapan news agency, said Armenia had been trying to diversify the sources of its weapons purchases, albeit with limited success. “There have been cases when Armenia bought weapons from Serbia,” he said. “SU-25 planes were bought, as far as I know, from Slovakia. There were also arms purchases from China and Belarus. But the main arms supplier to Armenia is, of course, Russia.”

“Armenia is now making only bullets,” said Petrosian. “This should not be seen as a first step, as it is too early to be talking about [Armenia] having a serious military industry. Making bullets does not mean Armenia is actively arming itself.” He added that it was important for Armenia to be able to repair weapons, even if it could not manufacture them. Giragosian said Armenia was achieving success with military reforms and cooperation with NATO, which he would like to see expand. “To my mind, Armenia is too heavily dependent on Russia,” he said. “For example, Armenia’s military aviation is somewhat weak. Armenia’s air force is under Russian influence within the Collective Security Pact. I’d like to see our military potential more independent.”

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by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:47 pm

Another old but interesting report on the Artsakh military.

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Among the multitude of armed formations, which have sprang up in the post-Soviet sphere, the Defense Army of Karabakh turned out to be one of the most battle worthy.

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Itogi.ru No. 42(322) October 26, 2002

Today people are starting to forget about Nagorno-Karabakh. But this small and strongly crisscrossed land, lost in the Caucasian heights, which by population size is second to any Moscow region (according to the latest information the population of NKR is only 145,128), played a colossal role in recent history. It was exactly here that the physical deterioration of the last world empire started. It was also here that the first war developed in the post-Soviet sphere, which put under the doubt the very idea of the existence of such a community of people as the Soviet People. After begetting a hurricane, Artsakh - the historical name of Nagorno-Karabakh - was destined to vanish from the political map of the world: the Azeri side had a massive military and economic superiority. But thanks to its army, Nagorno-Karabakh not only survived, but also enlarged its own borders... While getting ready to go to Karabakh, it was not our goal to identify who is to blame in conflict, which flickers to this day. We were interested exclusively in "technical" issues: how was it formed and according to what principles does the army of the state function, which instead of official borders has front

lines and is not accepted de-jure anywhere.

More Than Guerrillas

There is no need to explain to the participants of enforcement of a "constructive order in Soviet Transcaucasia" who are the fedayees. Armed with anything they could get their hands on and unclear who they were controlled by, the bearded guerrillas (partisans) stood against a no less exotic Azeri fighting force. In the beginning stages, military weapons were a big rarity here and the character of the military actions was very similar to gang fighting on a city level using common makeshift weapons. In those times Soviet generals didn't hide their contempt towards this "wild war" and its participants. Up to the point when blood still wasn't being shed in abundance and humor on military themes wasn't too dark, in many headquarters spread throughout "smoldering" Caucasus, the Karabakh conflict was referred to as the battle between shepherds and cattle breeders. The irony was present even when the fighting sides transferred into tanks and planes, when instead of gradoboykas (Translator's note: guns used for agricultural purposes) they started using frontline artillery - as the military warehouses and equipment in the region turned out to be more than sufficient. True, in Moscow they still hoped that these "peoples' military specialists" will never be able to adapt the modern military hardware which they inherited after the division of Soviet Union. But the hopes were dispersed when the so-called Karabakh War, which in Artsakh is considered Patriotic, went according to all rules of military art... They don't wear beards in the NKR Army any more. It is not outlawed, but it is also not encouraged. The outward appearance is clean cut - the camouflage is sawn on the local fabric from Greek material, thus strikingly resembling NATO. And if we put a Russian soldier next to one from Karabakh, the visual comparison, unfortunately, won't be in our favor. At the least, we didn't see a single soldier with a pitiful appearance, the likes of which are abundant even in Moscow. People wear the uniform with dignity here, even women and instructors of military-sporting schools: 70 percent of the population directly or indirectly are considered potential "military assets".

Big Little Army

The military budget of NKR is an impressive 20 percent of GDP. These kinds of spending percentages are not permissive, neither in the United States nor Russia. But to make up for it, in the past ten years, gone like a moment, they created here a well functioning military structure: infantry, armored, rocket-artillery forces, air defense forces, rear logistical services and all the necessary military services including, a reconnaissance battalion and a special forces unit formed on the base of national guard... In reality, here they know not only the appropriate place for a joke, but also the appropriate time. They warned us still in Yerevan that Karabakh Armenians are not only the most kind hearted but also the most warlike: from the four famous Soviet Armenian marshals, three were from Karabakh. People here, as is appropriate for the highlanders, are serious with a no-nonsense character. If the decision is taken that everybody must go through military service, everybody does it, regardless of the position of the parents, two years from start to finish.

Ohanian's Line

We should assume that the Defense Minister of NKR doesn't contradict his commander-in-chief all the time. But in any case, even for the president it is hard to pressure his military minister so easily. The point is that General-Lieutenant Seyran Ohanian is not simply a bureaucrat in uniform, but one of the thirteen national heroes, whom people respect no less than general director of AVPK "Sukhoy" (Sukhoy, famous Russian fighter and attack plane design bureau) Michail Pogosian, who also has Karabakhi roots. Seyran Ohanian has marched from cadet to battalion commander in the Soviet Army. He served in the military group in Germany, Kirovabad, then in 336th Stepanakert Mechanized Infantry Regiment. He says that when the time came to make a choice, he went to defend his smaller homeland, as he would probably do if he had to, the socialist Fatherland. He was in the command of a regiment, afterwards, during the heaviest fighting, he commanded the Mardakert front. He didn't leave the battlefield even when he was badly wounded and lost a leg. But in 6 months, he was back fighting and after signing of the ceasefire, he kept himself busy by building military fortifications. He spent his days and nights in the field, and worked at such a pace, that even people with two legs couldn't keep up with him. It was with his active participation that the military training center, of which even

the elite Moscow facilities can be jealous, was built from zero. They almost worship their commander in AOK. For example, the massive system of defensive fortifications, which today similar to Maginot Line encircles the entire borders of Karabakh, is unofficially called Ohanian's Line. During the war, they say, Azeris were offering one million dollars for the head of the commander of Mardakert front.

Soviet School

At the time of our visit, on General Ohanian's work desk there was a book by Marshal Shtemenko, "General Headquarters in War Years". "We take all that is positive from the experience of the Soviet Army and are actively filtering out all that is negative." By the way, the 200 thousand strong army of Azerbaijan, as is known, is energetically reorganizing according to the Turkish style. Even their military step is Turkish nowadays. Today, Soviet style (one regiment - one defense region) regiments of AOK are countered by two Azeri corps, each with five-six brigades. Brigades are formed by six to eight battalions. But if opportunity comes, the breakthrough attack will be carried

out by the elite units, including the Marines, which are now in the rear and are carrying out intense military training under the direction of Turkish instructors - who are not the worst military specialists in the world. That is why the "euphoria of victory", ruling now in Stepanakert, seriously concerns Karabakh command. Today Azerbaijan's army is several-fold larger in number, than the armed forces of Armenia and NKR together. But in Karabakh, they think that these forces are not sufficient to break through the Ohanian's Line so easily. Besides, here they prepare for the possibility of war in real terms: exactly once a week, no matter what, soldiers and officers of Artsakh conduct live-fire training exercises in the field. They are also replenishing their supplies of armaments, even though in the 'pyramids' (armories) there are still war-time machine guns. But the main problem is the officer cadres.

From three thousand officers of AOK only forty have served in the Soviet Army. Three hundred more went through training in Yerevan military academy and in Russian establishments of higher learning. Recently Boris Davidov, commander of 4th regiment, graduated with honors from All-Military Academy in Moscow. In the peaceful past Davidov was the graduate of Timiriazevsk Academy. Behind the shoulders of the Deputy Defense Minister lieutenant-colonel Aleksan Aleksanian are the Polytechnic Institute and the academic courses "Vistrel" (Shot). Students from Azerbaijan don't neglect Russian military academies either, but as Moscow instructors communicated to "Itogi", officers from Karabakh are working harder than all the others. In Soviet times there was an axiom: if three Armenians served in a subdivision at the same time, it meant a guaranteed disorder and brothel in the whole stationed division, if there were more Armenians - an utter lawlessness would ensue. In simple terms, it was thought that it would be impossible to create a regular army purely "comprised of Armenians", because it was thought, these people were spoiled by the warm climate and abundance of food and wealth. For AOK this axiom turned out to be false. At one time, Alexander Lebed (famous Russian General and elected governor of Krasnoyarsk, who brokered ceasefire in the first Chechen War), who visited Karabakh after the war, acknowledged, that the battle readiness of AOK is higher than the Russian Army, and there is more order. It was not hard to compare the two, because the military life and methods of training are almost identical.

Flying Russian Style

During the war Karabakhis shot down several dozen Azeri planes and helicopters and unfortunately, one of their own MiGs. Following that, they themselves would joke bitterly: "After that military loss the Armenian Air Force was reduced exactly by a half". In the beginning of the war the Armenian military aviation was comprised only of two planes. By the way, that unfortunate pilot remained alive. He parachuted and landed on the town square where he was given a good beating until the anxious defenders of Stepanakert figured out what had happened. Now, as the unfaltering sense of humor of the Armenian Radio (a line of famous jokes in Soviet Union) confirms, during every flight over the capital of NKR, he sends advance notification to the Air Defense Forces of Karabakh, which are part of Armenia's Air Defense Forces, and thus part of CIS'. It is not a secret that the planes of Azeri Air Force were manned mainly by Russian and Ukrainian crews, who were flying for money of course. Some of them were captured. Participants of the Karabakh War say that they could visually tell when the planes were flown by Russians: the bombs were released not on populated areas but in the mountains. One of them even landed his plane on the Armenian side. He didn't become national hero of course, but he got some applause for making some money and in the process not harming fellow Christians...

On the Border Clouds Are Menacing...

"We have won only due to our high spirit!" - says General Ohanian. In the beginning the defense detachments of Karabakh had no military experience, no weapons - the main military warehouses were on the Azeri side, furthermore just before their pullout, the Soviet Interior Troops carried out a thorough combing of Karabakh. That is why they were fighting practically with bare hands and trophies, until they secured supplies from Russia (remember the scandalous and criminal cases about arms shipments of Pavel Grachev's times). Monte Melkonian, (Armenian born in Lebanon and Harvard graduate) the legendary in Karabakh commander of 2nd regiment, used to make his subordinates account for destroying enemy tanks instead of capturing them intact. Experience came later. And now, the opponents of the NKR Defense Minister are arguing that the military training should be built

on the basis of their own military traditions. Seyran Ohanian prefers a compromise: own military experience plus classic Soviet military tactic. According to his opinion, the next war will be different - more professional. Here is how they picture the future battles in Stepanakert. Before, they thought that with the start of the hostilities the first line of trenches will be taken by the experienced reservists and the new recruits will take the second line of defense. The thinking was that the "old timers" will not dare to retreat. General Ohanian thinks differently: in order to facilitate the merging of experience and training, reservists and new recruits should be mixed in one unit... According to Karabakh reconnaissance, there were intense ground

works on the other side of the frontlines at night and in the morning Azeri positions became closer. In some areas two opposing armies are separated only by fifty meters. A tank can cover that distance in one swing. But colonel Davidov is sure that his subordinates will hold: "You can't run from a submarine!" Really, Karabakhis have nowhere to retreat.

Source: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:49 pm

WEAPONS PRODUCTION IN ARMENIA

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1. Small arms factory video: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Production of K-2 Pistol, K-3 Assault rifle and K-11 sniper rifle. Submachinegun under development.

2. Ammunition factory video: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Production of ammunition of various calibers.

3. Military vehicles production: If you have been in Armenia you might have come accross vehicles like these. These are modifications of some well known models.

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by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:50 pm

Official reports more fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh

BAKU, Azerbaijan: More than 20 Azerbaijani and Armenian soldiers have been killed in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh since July, an Azerbaijan government official said Thursday. Armenia disputed the claim.

Eldar Sabirogly, a spokesman for the Azerbaijan defense ministry, said at least 15 Armenian soldiers died during that period. He said the number of Azerbaijani soldiers was about half that number.

However, officials with Armenia's defense ministry said that Armenia had lost no soldiers during that period. Officials in Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies within Azerbaijan, also said their forces had seen no losses.

Both sides routinely accuse the other of breaking a cease-fire and try to highlight one another's military losses.

Armenian and ethnic Armenian forces drove Azerbaijan out of Nagorno-Karabakh in one of the bloodiest conflicts of the post-Soviet era. Some 30,000 people were killed and about 1 million were driven from their homes before the cease-fire was reached in 1994.

The lack of resolution on the region's status has held up development in the strategic South Caucasus region and raised fears of a new war between the two countries.

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by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:51 pm

WHAT LAVROV MEANT

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Sergei Lavrov said that unlike Georgia, other ex-Soviet states involved in territorial disputes do not plan to use military force to resolve them.
This is my warning: Do not plan to use force to resolve a conflict.

"There can be no parallels here,"
You should not use force so that there will be no parallels.

Moscow said its counterattack following Georgia’s offensive to retake South Ossetia in early August and the subsequent recognition of the two breakaway regions’ independence were its moral duty and necessary to protect them from possible new acts of aggression.
In case Azeris attack Nagorno-Karabagh, It will be Moscow's moral duty to recognize the breakaway region's independence and ensure their protection against further aggression.

"Russia will actively promote a peaceful solution to all the conflicts in the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] in line with international law and UN Charter principles,"
We are quite happy with the present status quo in NK. All that we want is endless talks (bla-bla-bla). Azeris should not dare attacking, this is my second warning

"We will pursue our mediation in peace talks, including over Transnistria and Nagorno Karabakh."
During the peace talks, we will tell everybody what each one should do...and we will say it very clearly.

"None of the sides engaged in the Nagorno Karabakh and Transnistria talks have nurtured plans to violate international law, existing agreements, the settlement format and to bomb civilians and peacekeepers,"
So far, everybody is being a good boy. This is my third and final warning: Don't even think of violating international law and/or bomb civilians or peacekeepers.

by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:53 pm

A TALE OF TWO DEFENSE BUDGETS: ARMENIA vs AZERBAIJAN

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"Camouflage face-painted Azerbaijani special forces showing off their Israeli-made TAVOR assault rifles, communication gear, "cool gloves" and other goodies during a military parade in Baku.

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Russian made GAZ-3308 SADKO 4x4 trucks carrying troops during a military parade inYerevan.

What's in defense budget?

The Azeri economy has been doing well for the last few years since they started exporting significant quantities of oil. The fact that the barrel of oil reached record levels did not hurt either. Baku has cash, and it is spending it. Vast sums are being used to re-equip and modernize the Azeri army which took a severe beating during the early nineties by the Armenian side.

Lavish sums are being spend by the Baku rulers. The latest estimates put their defense budget for 2008 at around 1.2 billion US dollars with Aliev claiming that it will even reach $2 billion.

In comparison, the defense budget of the Republic of Armenia is only a fraction of that. Most Analysts agree of a figure between 200 and 300 million US dollars.

At this rate, one would naturally expect that the Azerbaijan army wil,l in a short few years, become far stronger than the combined forces of Armenia and Karabagh.

True, but....not quite so.

In the real world, it's not only what you spend - but also, how you spend.

The above 2 photos are a perfect illustration of what I mean.

The living standards of the Azeri population is not high at all. The corrupt and unpopular rulers at Baku were cash-starved up to very recent times. Now that they are having money in their coffers, they can be considered as "nouveau rich"....and yes, that comes with "nouveau riche" mentality and manners of spending.

Lets have a close look at those Azeri soldiers parading. They remind me of the Western equipped and trained Georgian soldiers parading in Tbilissi.

The equipment they are carrying is indeed of top quality, but will it give them an advantage?

They have paid commercial prices to acquire them. Those Israeli made TAVOR rifles must be have cost them 2- 3 thousand Dollars apiece. Compare that with a trusty Kalashnikov that basically does the same job for around $500 only...."nouveau riche" behavior.

While the Azeris are re-equipping, the Armenian side is doing the same with a much tighter budget. I can't find in our equipment anything that can be qualified as "overkill", "a bit too much", "for show-off", "un-necessary", "gold-plated" or even "nice looking". Everything I see has a job to do at the minimum expense possible.

While Azerbaijan is paying market prices to acquire equipment from Israel, Turkey, Ukraine and elsewhere, we are buying the majority of our weapons at a discounted rate (friendly prices) from Russia. The choice of types of weaponry are also being made wisely.

Look at the recently acquired GAZ-3308 trucks in the photo above. Nothing special about them. But, they are simple, robust, reliable and easy to repair workhorses that will carry troops, ammunition, supplies. They will also bring back the wounded, prisoners and the war trophies. How much did we pay for these carry all 4x4? around $17,000 per vehicle at the friendly Russian rates.

To show you more about the Azeri way of spending.

Last year they received from Ukraine a total of 14 Mig-29 fighters. They paid huge sums for the airplanes and their refurbishment (which was done in Ukrainian facilities). To do what? These sleek jets will look good in military parades and fly-overs, but they were designed as air defense fighters. What good are they in the skies over Karabagh. Armenia does not have fighters or true bombers. The Armenian air force is not equipped to launch bombing raids against the Azeri heartland. All we have is a squadron (about 15) Su-25 strike planes that are going to support our troops at low level on the battlefield. The Mig-29 has limited use against those low flying planes which hare hard to detect by the horizon limited Azeri radars (no AWACS planes available). Plus, the Armenian anti-air defenses will be there to give a tough time to any Azeri fighter who might have located a Su-25 and is planning to attack it. These Mig-29s will not excel in the bombing field either. They are too fast and too fragile to be used as strike aircraft( like the Su-25) and, being early models, they are not able to use precision guided bombs for surgical strikes. All they can deliver in an attack is dumb bombs and unguided rockets against large targets. Unfortunately, they can cause heavy damage in Stapanagerd...

Furthermore, 2 of these Migs have already crashed during separate training flights....because the sub-par refurbishment of the jets was done by Ukrainian companies, not by the Mig factory........Money down the drain.

They have also re-activated the old but still capable massive S-200 (SA-5) air defense missile complexes…as if we had high flying strategic bombers.

In contrast, we have no sleek Mach-2 plus airplanes. We would love to have some for protection against bombing runs by Azeri fighter-bombers. But buying and operating them is beyond the means of our tiny budget. Instead, we are relying on the best air defense systems in the Caucasus (operated jointly with the Russian forces in Armenia) and the squadron of Mig-29s based in Erebuni.

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Azerbaijan air force Mig-29 fighters over Baku
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The massive S-200 (SA-5) anti-startegic bomber surface-air missile

In future posts, I will compare forces and equipment in all fields (air, armor, artillery, air defense etc.)

Having demonstrated some of the foolish ways of them spending money for weaponry, I also would like to point out that they have also acquired arms that are very dangerous to us. In some of my future posts, I will also post details of those I consider the most dangerous. Also, I will also point out to our strong points and so on.

But, I am talking “military budget” now, and I must point out that part of Aliyev’s defense budget is going into their navy. Details of the budget breakdown are not available, I would guess that around 10% of it is spent on their sea-forces which present no danger to the mountains of Karabagh.

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Patrol boats of the Azeri navy

To wrap up. Their high military budget does not alarm me very much for the time being. I will be more concerned if they keep up spending that way for a long while….which begs the following questions:

Is the Azeri economy going to continue to expand at the current rate?

Is the price of oil going to be as high as it has been?
Are they going to be able to safely export their oil in the future?
Etc.etc.

As a footnote. Wars are not won by accountants and purchase officiers. They are won by soldiers. On the battlefield, motivation, readiness for sacrifice, tactics, training, morale and a pinch of tradition carry more value than sheer brute arsenal.

It is worth noting the similarities between the Azeri army and the Georgians. Tbilissi’s troops were very well equipped and had received ample training from Western countries. They went into battle with high spirits….at the first sign of trouble they ran like rabbits all the way to their capital.

I can see the same thing happening if Baku dares to take Nagorno Karabagh by force.

History does repeat itself.

by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:54 pm

NKR in Focus: Ossetia conflict continues reflected attention on Karabakh
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After South Ossetia-related passions calmed attention switched to the Republic of Nagorno Karabakh- the only “smoldering” conflict in the Caucasus.

Tensions between Russia and the West have almost nullified the possibility of further cooperation within the framework of the OSCE Minsk group, where Russia and the USA are co-chairmen on the Karabakh settlement.

It’s not accidental that on September 12 the American co-chairman of the Minsk group Mathew Bryza visited Stepanakert alone, without his Russian and French colleagues. He is leading a separate American policy.

At the same time, as Russian Kommersant newspaper reports, the Russian president offered to arrange a meeting for the heads of Armenia and Azerbaijan, but as mediated by Russian President Medvedyev, rather than under the aegis of the OSCE Minsk group.

The European Union isn’t falling behind either. Goran Lennmarker, Special Rapporteur of OSCE Parliamentary Assembly on Nagorno Karabakh thinks that “the Karabakh conflict is the only obstacle on the way of cooperation between the countries of South Caucasus [Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan], and it is important to make efforts for its settlement.”

Meanwhile, Pierre Morel has been appointed the second EU Special Rapporteur on South Caucasus. European analysts say “Pierre Morel’s appointment might allow Peter Semneby (the first co-chairman of EU) to better concentrate on the frozen conflict of Nagorno Karabakh.”

Now, too, the game has a new player – Turkey – which throughout the 20 years ever since the Karabakh conflict started in 1988, has constantly been trying to get into the format of a mediator, but to no avail. After the South Ossetian events Turkey came up with an initiative to create a Platform of Security and Stability in the Caucasus and now declares that it wants to become a mediator in the Karabakh conflict settlement.

Together with Baku, Ankara stated that the format of the Minsk group has exhausted itself and offered to arrange a tri-lateral meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey. Armenia has accepted the offer. Two round-table discussions on the “Situation in the South Caucasus, NKR’s Perspectives on International Recognition” were held at the National Assembly of Nagorno Karabakh.

Answering the question about Turkey’s initiative to perform as a mediator in the process of peace settlement of the Karabakh conflict, NKR Foreign Minister George Petrosyan stated that “in a way it [the initiative] contradicts the co-chairmanship of the OSCE Minsk group on the Karabakh conflict settlement.”

At the same time the Minister emphasized that Turkey’s initiative in creating a platform of security and stability does not envisage participation of the European Union, the USA and other interested parties. “However, in the current situation, how can full security be possibly guaranteed in the region without the participation of those states with a serious interest in the region?” said Petrosyan.

What solution to the Karabakh conflict do the mediators suggest and what is the divergence of interests of the main world players? Judging from what analysts suppose, the parties have come to share an opinion that the Karabakh conflict can be settled now by recognizing NKR within the limits of the Autonomous Region of Nagorno Karabakh (Azerbaijan’s former enclave) and by returning the lands around former ARNK currently controlled by the Karabakh forces. However, as security experts say, Karabakh is of strategic interest only if it preserves its current borders: the former ARNK, even if a corridor with Armenia is provided, cannot serve the strategic interests of the Armenian nation and cannot become a transit point for communications. Global communication projects, offered to be implemented in Karabakh, will have to pass through the liberated lands, and not through the former ARNK.

Turkish Presidents Abdullah Gul’s statement after his return to Ankara [after visiting Yerevan] that RA President Serzh Sargsyan “promised to return the occupied lands” proves the possibility of such settlement. Armenia has not disclaimed that statement. Gul said that the issues between Turkey and Armenia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are not only bilateral, but also territorial ones: “The situation in the region has changed considerably, peace in the Caucasus, settlement of conflicts between states will lead not only to political but also economic stability.”

It may seem that’s what Mathew Bryza proposed to NKR President Bako Sahakyan.

“Yes, the principle of territorial integrity really exists. But if a deal is made between the conflicting parties, everybody has to accept it, as well as include other principles of the international law and diplomacy,” said Bryza, adding that such a deal is possible.

President Sahakyan pointed out that official Stepanakert is for peace settlement of the Karabakh conflict only if NKR takes a first-hand participation in the negotiation processes. “The Republic of Nagorno Karabakh will gain recognition. That’s just a matter of time. The events of the world show that that day is not far away,” he declared.

“No progress in the Karabakh conflict settlement is likely to happen until the forthcoming presidential elections in Azerbaijan are over,” stated Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in his interview to a Turkish newspaper Radical. He also pointed out that the conflict settlement depends on the parties’ political will.

Stepanakert’s response to Mathew Bryza, Dmitri Medvedyev and other potential mediators is still a mystery. One thing is obvious: everybody will now try to establish control over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh, which has ????? long borderline with Iran – a country of much more interests these days than the tiny NKR.

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by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:55 pm

The Following posts will be about weapons in Azerbaijan's arsenal that are potentially the most concerning. Here is the first one:

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Metallic hail: SMERCH Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS)

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SMERCH system on Parade in Baku on June 2, 2008.

These are Russian (Soviet) made 300 mm rocket launchers (12 per vehicle). The Azeris bought 12 of these a few years ago from the Ukraine.

Details of the SMERCH on the manufacturer's website: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

These are powerfull weapons that can be used in 3 different ways against us:

1. Each rocket weighs a massive 800 kg. A volley of these carry enough punch to breach our fortified defenses and allow their tanks and soldiers to pass through into our territories.

Our counter: do not concentrate defense on one line, have 3 or more defensive lines. Be prepared for the eventuality of a defense collapsing and have defense in the rear (defense in depth).

2. Destroy any concentration of our own armour that is preparing a counter-attack against the intruding Azeris.

Our counter: Avoid armour concentrations for extended periods of time. All actions should br made swiftly. Hide assets in forests and use camouflage techniques to avoid detection.

3. The 70 km range rocket (there is also a 90km version but I don't know if the Azeris have it) can be used to wipe out civilian centers. Stepanagerd would be at the mercy of these. A single rocket can bring down a 3 story building. For comparison: the Georgians were using much smaller rockets to destroy Tskinvalli.

Our counter: Evacuate civilians out of major towns and villages as early as possible.

The best counter: destroy the SMERCHs early in the conflict. We can use our Mi-24 helicopter gunships, our Su-25 "Shturmovik" strike aircraft or our own equivalent to the SMERCH: we posess a handfull of Chinese made WM-80 273mm mulltiple rocket launchers (8 rockets per vehicle). These are not as good or powerfull as the Russian made SMERCH, but at least they match the later's range and can be used for counter-battery fire.

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A couple of our Mi-24 gunships during training

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A trio of our Su-25 close support aircraft during a military parade

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Our "made in China" WM-80 rocket launchers in Yerevan

by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:56 pm

ONE NEEDS BRAINS TO HOLD VICTORY IN WAR

Lilit Poghosyan

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
18 Sep 2008
Armenia

Physical strength and the quantity of arms do not matter

"Tigran Mets" hall of "Armenia-Marriott" hotel was unusually crowded
yesterday. A number of representatives of the native political elite
and intelligentsia - pro-government and pro-opposition figures,
political scientists, diplomats, representatives of culture and
science and veterans of war had come here to mark the presentation
of the book entitled "Victories - the Way They Were: Call Sign". The
book is dedicated to Samvel Babayan, one of the heroes who helped
shape the victory in the war of Artsakh.

At the end of the presentation, SAMVEL BABAYAN answered to the
questions of the journalists.

"Azerbaijan continues to multiply its military expenses and is
assiduously arming itself. Do you think the Armenian side will
be able to resist the Azerbaijani aggression in case there is a
confrontation? "

"It is clearly stated in the book that in 1992 Azerbaijan had more arms
and ammunition than it has now. Its ammunition reserves were envisaged
for the period of 6 months, according to the standards of the Soviet
Union. All that was used against us, but nothing came out of it. Hence,
the outcome of the war can never be determined by the quantity of
the arms. Neither can it b e determined it by physical strength.

This is what the book attempts to impart to the reader. If some
people believe that victory in war is achieved by spirit and physical
strength, the book proves the contrary. By waging a war, Azerbaijan
will commit a great blunder. Even if it turns out successful at some
stage, it doesn't matter; that won't last long.

Such was the case in 1992, and such will it be in future. Azerbaijan
should realize very well that in case of resorting to such adventurism,
it may lose very large territories."

"Is it possible for Azerbaijan to be bold enough to follow the
precedent of Georgia?"

"In my opinion, Azerbaijan should either recognize the Nagorno Karabakh
Republic or try to solve the problem through military operations;
it has no alternative. And neither do we have any. The Armenian side
should be ready for mutual concessions; of course, laying the stress
on security issues, first of all."

"Does Armenia make an equivalent response to Azerbaijan's diplomatic
initiatives? I mean, don't we suffer a defeat in the propaganda war?"

"I wouldn't like to make such characterizations. Even though Azerbaijan
is active and conducts a little bit hysteric policy, I think it is also
a matter of time. Armenia should first of all develop its economy,
improve its social conditions and establish firm grounds for its20
foreign policy, not by serving some superpower but really trying
to relieve the tension in the region, and make efforts towards the
European integration.

As to the fact that Azerbaijan makes scenes of hysteria in different
international tribunals, this is not a way for solving problems. It
did the same in the past as well. Do you remember when father Aliev
came to power, it was making hysteria again? It was acting from the
positions of a victim, announcing that the Armenians had occupied 20
percent of their territory etc. But as you see, that didn't help them
'solve' the Karabakh issue. Issues are solved through diplomatic
channels, i.e. around the table of negotiations.

If Azerbaijan again persists in using force and arms, I repeat it will
be deprived of a lot of things. So, when Azerbaijan realizes this, and
sees that it may lose its territories extending to the Caspian Sea,
it will sit around the table, without believing its supporters who
persist in their statements that everything will be all right. The
things will not be all right. In 1992, they were also sure that
everything would be 'all right', but that proved to be wrong."

"During the recent period, Mr. Aliev has been often speaking about
the possibility of settling the Karabakh conflict through diplomatic
channels, i.e. by holding peace talks. Should we consider this a
temporary retreat from the bla ckmail tactics or has Azerbaijan taken
a more realistic view of the things?"

"I believe, Azerbaijan's posture is conditioned by the current
situation in the region. Azerbaijan has not yet found the right way,
and is now trying to clarify its relations with the West and Russia. It
will try to win time waiting for a proper moment, and then it will
become active again."

by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:57 pm

Dance of the Scarab: TOCHKA

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TOCHKA precision guided missile in Baku 26 June, 2008.

SS-21 SCARAB is the NATO codename for the Russian TOCHKA high-precision theatre missile. The Russian forces used a few of these during their operation against Georgian forces during August 2008.

Detials of the Tochka-U at the manufacturer's site: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

An unknown number of those are in service in the Azeri army. I don't know how, when and from where they acquired them. But they sure do worry me.

This 2000 kg missile carries a 500 kg warhead and is very accurate. Needless to say that it can cause heavy damage. The range is 120 km putting all of Karabagh and a good part of Armenia itself whitin range of this weapon.

It can be used against high value military targets such as command centers, airports, ammunition depots etc.... as well as against civilian centers. It is basically a mini-SCUD missile, but much more accurate.

How to counter it: get it before it gets you. We can use our air assets against it (provided we know were they are).

Do we have anything similar in our army? According to some sources, we do, and we have SCUD missiles as well. But I can not confirm anything as I have never seen a photo.

by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:58 pm

Speedy Intruder: Su-24

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In the skies over Baku: A su-24 leads a pair of Mig-29s

It is not clear how many of these sleek fighter-bombers exist in the inventory of the Azeri air force. Some sources say one, others four and yet others talk about 10.

Whatever the correct number is. This is the only Azeri aircraft that can deliver a precision attack anywhere in Armenia in any kind of wheater at any time of the day (or night). Yes, it is a weapon system for surgical strikes. The Azeris have the plane, but do they have the precision guided bombs and missiles? We must assume that they do (Yushenko's Ukraine or Turkey or Israel could supply them).

Twin pilots, supersonic speed, an 8000 kg bomb-load, terrain following radar (for low level penetration) etc. etc. this plane excells in its bombing missions.

The other jet planes in Azerbaijans airforce have limitations in their bombing missions (no precision delivery systems, or too slow for deep penetration strikes, or unable to bomb during adverse wheather or by night).

Our counter to this plane (and the other Azeri aircraft): we don't have air defense fighters in our air force. It is too costly to buy, maintain and operate modern fighter jets. However, the Russian air force squadron based in Erebuni airport near Yerevan uses Mig-29s. We have also an adequate early warning radar system integrated with the most potant Surface to Air Missile (SAM) complex in the area (more about this in a future post). Attacking Armenia itself by air will be a very difficult mission for the Azeris.

Unfortunately, the Russsian manned Mig-29s and the S-300 SAM missiles are to defend Armenia only. They may not be extended to defend Karabagh in case of a localized conflict.

Karabagh has its own SAM systems (altough not as capable as the S-300) plus its own Anti-Aircraft Artillery (AAA) and can fight back and repel the Azeri intruders. I promise to discuss in length about airwar and air defense in a future post.

by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:59 pm

Demons in the Dark: Night-vision

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Azeri special forces wearing nightvision goggles during a military parade

The modern face of military warfare: stealthy attacks.

The enemy is investing in night-fighting capabilities. Holywood movie style: a silent, undetected and unseen attack on the sentries - eliminate the front line defenses so that the main body of troops can penetrate and conquer territory.

How to counter this clear and present danger: night-vision equipment is readily available (even for civilians). The real fancy stuff (thermal imagers etc.) is very expensive but worthwile. I don't have details about our own acquisitions in that field.

The old fashioned way of fighting in the dark is to shoot flares into the sky. These will illuminate the battlefield and nightvision equipment becomes meaningless. But you have to keep firing these flares all the time...

by Simba Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:00 pm

sorry a little off topic but what do you think about this report by Moscow news?

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Russian Army’s weaknesses exposed

On September 10, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov was scheduled to address the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, to inform the deputies about current military development and various problems. Serdyukov had to explain why the Russian Army lacked modern weapons during the recent peace enforcement operation in Georgia. The main elements of the North Caucasian Military District's 58th Army have already been re-deployed to Russia. The bravest officers and men have received government decorations. Those killed in action have been buried. And now it is high time to assess the operation's lessons.

Russian President Dmitry Medvexdev has senior Defense Ministry officials to do this, also telling Serdyukov to submit proposals on amending the state rearmament program. The Rusxsian Army primarily requires combat-support systems, rather than new weaponry, in order to become a genuinely modern and effective fighting force. Those, who fought in Georgia this August, know that Russian peace-keepers sustained the greatest casualties during the first hours of the Georgian aggression because Moscow and Vladikavkaz, where the 58th Army's headquarters is located, failed to promptly order troops to repel the attack and to send elements of the 58th Army to South Ossetia. Moreover, Russian forces did not know the firing positions of Georgia's Grad multiple-launch rocket systems, Gvozdika self-propelled guns and T-72 tank units. Nor did the Russian Army have any dependable reconnaissance systems, including unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs). Although Russian and foreign UCAVs are regularly displayed at the annual MAKS international aerospace show in Zhukovsky near Moscow, including at the MAKS-2007 show, the Russian Army still lacks them because the national Defense Ministry decided to stop buying them in 2006.

Consequently, the Russians had no choice but to send a Tupolev Tu-22M3 Backfire strategic bomber on a reconnaissance mission and to use Sukhoi Su-25 Frogfoot ground-attack jets to hit Georgian MLRS batteries. The Georgians downed four Rusxsian aircraft, which could have been saved if the Russians had the required UCAVs. The destruction of three Su-25 attack planes, which had won a reputation for themselves during the 1979-1989 Afghan war, shows that they have not been overhauled since. The Su-25s still lack radar sights, computers for calculating ground-target coordinates and long-range surface-to-air missiles that could be launched outside enemy air-defense areas. Nor did they have any "smart" weapons for destroying Georgian artillery pieces and surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. This is quite surprising, because such weapons have been repeatedly displayed at various exhibitions. Although some companies are ready to install interchangeable state-of-the-art radio and electronic equipment on the Su-35, the Defense Ministry prefers to deal with (and handsomely pay) its favorite contractors. These companies were not up to the task, and are responsible for the loss of four aircraft and the capture of two pilots. Several more pilots were killed as a result of their incompetence.

A similar situation holds in the sphere of radio-electronic warfare. It turns out that Russian electronic counter-measures (ECM) systems are unable to jam and suppress enemy SAMs and reconnaissance systems, radars and UHV communications and troop-control networks. This is rather disturbing, especially as the Georgian Army lacked modern systems. As a result the 58th Army sustained unnecessary casualties, and also lost more combat equipment than it should have. The Russian tank force has been suffering from major problems for a long time. The North Caucasian Milixtary District, for instance, still operates T-72 main battle tanks without night sights. But not even the more sophisticated T-80-U and T-90 have such sights, either. Moreover, their explosive-reactive armor was not filled with explosives and could not therefore deflect high-explosive anti-tank (HEAT) weapons.

The Dzerzhinsky Ural Railroad Car Works (Uralvagonzavod), which has developed all post-Soviet and Russian main battle tanks except the T-80, unveiled its Tank Support Combat Vehicle (TSCV) over 20 years ago. The TSCV featured nine weapons systems, including guided anti-tank missiles, large-caliber machine-guns, SAMs and 30-mm and 40-mm automatic rocket launchers, and was intended to be used against Mujaxhedin forces in Afghanistan. Most importantly, the TSCV had effective target-acquisition systems for detecting and killing enemy soldiers long before they could fire the first shot. Although the TSCV has passed all state tests with flying colors and has also been displayed at numerous exhibitions, it has not served with the Russian Army to date. Unlike most advanced foreign armies, including the Israeli Army, Russian tanks are not supported by attack helicopters. There is no regular radio communication between Rusxsian tank, motorized-rifle, helicopter, attack-plane and tactical-bomber units either.

Although experts have been discussing the creation of an integrated combat-control system for many years, such a system remains on the drawing board. The Russian Army and its commanders have not yet realized that all units and weapons accomplishing a joint objective must become part of an integrated combat-control system. Russian officers and soldiers have to compensate for the current lag in combat-support systems with their selfless heroism and bravery. But this costs the country and its armed forces dearly. It is high time we learned modern fighting skills. The system for awarding state defense contracts must also be modified accordingly. Unfortunately, the Russian Army is unlikely to receive new weapons and combat-support systems after the South Ossetian conflict. Although Russia has once again paid a high price for victory, its generals and politicians often prefer empty talk to candid and sober-minded assessments.

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